The crystal ball must have been a little hazy as some of the predictions were a bit off and on the whole were a bit optimistic (re-reading them is rather embarrassing as they seem a bit biased and fan-like).
Communicator Successor
The prediction of a Communicator successor and most of its features was right, but the UI used wrong. Series 90 didn't have as big a role as I thought, and that's reflected in the decision to roll it into Series 60. I missed the 9300, but I was right about another Series 90 smartphone in the form of the 7710.
A good year for UIQ
UIQ never got as far as I thought it would (5-8 new devices), although there is still a lot of potential with UIQ, with 3 devices around the corner. The P1000 didn't get announced and the megapixel cameras came in non-Sony Ericsson UIQ devices, nor are there any Wi-Fi UIQ phones (yet).
Lots of Series 60 devices
The Series 60 predictions were quite good. I was, perhaps, expecting more devices, but Series 60 has emerged as the predominant, mass market smartphone platform and mobile media has been big this year. The non-Nokia Series 60 phones haven't emerged as fast as I thought they would and it seems many manufacturers are beginning to appreciate the difficulty in creating phones with more advanced software platforms.
N-Gage 2 and Success
I got the N-Gage partly right, there was a new version, the QD, but it still hasn't been that successful. Although the N-Gage has admirers and now some fairly decent games, it still has some way to go. I think it has done a lot better than it might given that Nokia started from nothing.
Symbian and bits and pieces
We did see a new version of the Symbian OS – 8 – and a lot more partnerships and a few new licensees. Using data services on phones has become more common and the prices have fallen, but MMS still has not really taken off, and OPL still has work to do in getting out final version run times.
2004 was a good year for Symbian, although my predictions were too optimistic - a lot of that is because the timing was not right – I'm sure we'll see some of these fulfilled in 2005... and on that note it is time for the 2005 predictions...
Symbian
2005 may well be a break out year for Symbian. Aside from the obvious things – such as Symbian OS 9, more partnerships and more licensees (particularly from the Far East) – we will also see more than 5 million smartphones shipped in a quarter (probably in Q4 2004 or Q1 2005). I would expect 20-25 million or more smartphones to ship in the year, with the installed user base heading towards the 50 million mark. The trend of Symbian OS powering lower tier devices will continue and, with competition from Palm OS, Linux and Microsoft, licensing fees may be cut, meaning that the break even point may move further into the distance.
Symbian and the FOMA (DoCoMo) network will continue their much publicised love-in. Though most of us will not see any of it, the experienced gained in being at the cutting edge in Japan will have inevitable benefits for the OS as a whole and ensure that (technologically) Symbian OS maintains its advantage over its rivals.
Series 60
Series 60 will continue as the dominant smartphone and Symbian platform. Nokia look set to announce as many as 12 Series 60 devices in the next 12 months, and Siemens' rumoured next generation devices may also make an appearance. We can expect more from Panasonic too, following hefty investments in Symbian phone development centres. Sendo should probably announce their next generation device some time in the second half of the year and Samsung will start shipping their devices in numbers (probably the D720). I think we will also see Series 60 phones from other manufacturers and it is probably only a matter of time before we get an ODM Series 60 device.
The majority of these devices are going to have megapixel cameras and more and a good portion will be 3G enabled. 3G has had bad press to date, but a lot of this has to do with the devices not being able to take advantage of the potential on offer. Nokia have said that they will produce 10 3G devices in 2005 and I expect half of those to be Symbian powered. Rumours of the 3G 6680 and 8650 have been around for a few months and these may be publicly announced shortly.
On the other hand, mid-tier phones such as the 3230 are going to drive the sales numbers and it's likely we will see an ever increasing diversity of phones. If Nokia can get Series 60 to stick here they will have a considerable lead and advantage over their competition.
Series 90 is being rolled into Series 60 and there won't be a great deal of activity here this year (the merger is not set to be fully complete until 2006). However this is part of a greater trend where we can expect to see a much greater diversity in shape, size and form factor of Series 60 devices. Going along with this is the much rumoured upgrade to the menu interface which works in 3 dimensions instead of the traditional 2.
Feature Pack 3 of Series 60 allows for multiple screen resolutions and it's probably only a matter of months (3GSM) before we see the higher resolution Series 60 devices, with the 6680 possibly to be the first of these. Rumour has it that a Series 90 Communicator (9700) was cancelled, but we could see this reappear with a Series 60 UI in the long term.
N-Gage
It is highly likely that we will see the third N-Gage device sometime in 2005. E3 is a good time to look out for it. Nokia have said that one of their advantages is their ability to produce the next device more quickly that the more traditional gaming companies.
The game portfolio is already looking reasonably healthy for 2005, and that is a trend that will continue. The majority of the games are going to take advantage of Arena functionality – something which has only really been evident in the most recent games. If it is to succeed, it is playing other gamers over the network which will help the N-Gage to get there.
UIQ
UIQ didn't have as bright a 2004 as many people thought it would. Indeed there is an increasing trend to write off UIQ as dead. This would be a mistake given the emergence of limited information on UIQ 3 last year. You can expect to hear a lot more about UIQ 3 in the next 12 months and a fair few handsets based on it, some of which will come to market in the second half of the year. UIQ will become for Sony Ericsson what Series 60 is for Nokia. You can expect a whole range of devices to use it, from the T6xx format, right up to the next version P series. UIQ 3 supports a much greater diversity of form factor thanks to its support for either single handed use or pen input and multiple screen sizes and resolutions. It is a very advanced UI and is at least equivalent, if not more advanced than Series 60 with Feature Pack 3.
I would also expect more activity in the Far East both from large names, but also from ODM manufacturers. I would be surprised if the Arima phone remained the only ODM device for very long.
UIQ will however face stiff competition from both Palm based devices (Cobalt and the more recently announced Linux based Palm OS) and those with Windows Mobile 2005. The key to success will be adoption by Sony Ericsson and building up relations with ODM manufacturers in much the same way Microsoft has done with HTC.
Series 80
It's possible we will see the announcement of a 3G Communicator by the end of the year, but with 9300 availability just round the corner it is not going to happen in the first half of the year. The 9300 will provide useful mid-tier access into the world of Series 80, although both 9500 and 9300 will remain niche units, relative to the numbers talked about in the Series 60 world. The 9500 in particular will find favour as the natural replacement for the tens of thousands of people still hanging on to creaking Psion palmtops.
Conclusion
2005 is set to be the biggest year yet for smartphones in general and that means a big year for Symbian-powered phones. By the time the dust has settled people will be looking at the 7610 and the P900 much as we see the 3650 and P800 now – a bit long in the tooth and with antiquated software and design.
Symbian itself is unlikely to be a household name, but 2005 is the first step on the road to their smartphones being in every household. Move over tech-heads, your pride and joy just went mainstream...