Starting with Michael Mace (former CCO of Palm Source and VP at Palm), Mace nails the reason why there is so much emotion in the room about Nokia ceding to Microsoft:
Although Europe is really a collection of nations rather than a single place, there are a few things that seem to tug on heartstrings across many European countries. The Eurovision Song Contest is one, Airbus is another, and Nokia is a third. It represents European style and marketing prowess, and it proves that people in Europe can lead a high-tech industry. So the deal with Microsoft represents far more than a business deal; it feels like a betrayal of a European jewel at the hands of a rapacious American company.
But he then goes on to address the other elephant in the room, which is how well can both Nokia and Microsoft implement the plan? If they can do that efficiently (and that’s probably the biggest question around the deal), then he says that this is going to make the networks happy…
They have always wanted the handset vendors to be barefoot and pregnant, too weak and divided to fight with them for control over phone customers. A five-platform world is immensely attractive to them because the platforms can be played off against one another.
…and it’s going to provide a lifeline to Nokia, and a chance to survive:
It's important to understand what the alternative was for Nokia. If the company had continued at current course and speed, the decline in gross margins would have put it close to break even this year, and it would have started losing money in 2012.
Where does that leave developers? A good question, because currently the focus in many minds is iOS then Android. Mace touches on it, but the baton on that point has been picked up by Robert Scoble. While I personally disagree that Nokia’s only fault was the third party ecosystem (a lot of factors have come into play), Scoble and I are now reading from the same playbook:
Right now Nokia and Windows Phone 7 are out of the game. That’s why Google’s exec, Vic Gundotra, is calling them both “turkeys.” Does this get both into the game? Yes! Here’s why.
- Nokia has distribution. Distribution Google doesn’t yet have. Nokia has dealers and stores in the weirdest places on earth. Places Apple won’t have stores in for decades, if ever.
- Microsoft has a great OS. I like it better than Android. If you actually USED a Windows Phone 7 you’d see that to be true.
- Microsoft has great developer tools.
- Microsoft has Xbox. Which has just been rejuvenated with Kinect (hottest selling product in history, even hotter than the iPad!) i.e., some parts of Microsoft ARE cool!
- Nokia has great hardware design and supply chains. It always has great cameras, great screens. Supply chains matter. A lot more than anyone thinks (the stuff Apple never talks about, but works its ass off on, is supply chain management — I got to see this first hand when I visited China).
You add that all up as a salad and now the smart developers have to take another look at Microsoft and Nokia.
Christian Lindholm also highlights the benefits to developers on GigaOm:
This question goes something like this. ‘If you’ve developed your Android app, you’ve developed your iOS app – what exactly do you do next? What do you do? Where do you focus?' There’s too much market share at stake to simply ignore the other platforms, but there are too many other app ecosystems to have the time and resources to cover them all.
That question is now settled in favor of Windows Phone 7. Developers will start to gravitate towards this platform, and see it as part of their development roadmap alongside Android and Apple. The question ‘What are we doing about Windows Phone?’ will start to be asked.
It’s still going to be tough, but if Windows Phone becomes the de facto third platform after iOS and Android in people’s minds, coupled with the volume of sales that the Nokia brand can deliver, then you have a strong story to tell. And lest we forget, when the gaming world was solidly in the duoploy of Nintendo and Sony, the Xbox wasn’t given a lot of time. And we all know what happened there.
Perhaps the game developers are already voting. While anecdotal, online tracking company Flurry has spoken to WM Power User and has reported a 66% increase in new Windows Phone games:
They note the only new news had been the increasingly strong rumours of the Nokia/Windows Phone 7 deal… from Flurry’s point of view, this week’s spike in Windows Phone 7 developer activity shows that developers not only believe Nokia has given Microsoft Windows Phone 7 a shot in the arm, but also that Nokia and Microsoft together can build a viable ecosystem. “With spiking support for Nokia and Microsoft, developers are showing us they believe.”
So what happens now? Well we’re at the start of chapter one of the next book of Nokia, and there’s going to be a lot of pain in there. There are enough former Nokia employees out there bringing their experience to bear. Julien Fourgeaud worked at both Nokia and Symbian, and looks at Nokia’s decision process with a clear head:
I never saw a Nokia CEO be so clear and intelligible. Most of all, he sounded pretty honest, and straightforward. I was expecting a lot more “political” speech but he was really trying to help us understand both the situation Nokia was in and why they made this strategic decision... Looking at the problem with a strategic angle, an alliance with Microsoft gives Nokia a chance to become relevant again in the consumer’s minds. It also provides an opportunity for operators to differentiate, and for Microsoft to grow its market share.
Let’s finish with Janne Jalkanen, who’s in-depth post contains a number of pointers we should all be watching:
Now, Nokia might've been desperate, but they are not stupid. Considering that mobile phone manufacturers have consistently failed to work with Microsoft, Nokia needs a Plan B. Now they have a couple of years of time to execute it. If they do not, then it's obvious that they've thrown in the towel and are only waiting for Microsoft to buy them.
I think the way to figure out which way Nokia is going to go will be seen in how they treat Qt. If they choose to keep it, Meego is going to be the future. If they choose to let it wither and die (or sell it off), Meego will become just a curiosity. Qt is the key for Meego developer adoption, and the only way it could become a feasible smartphone platform. In my opinion there's no point to develop Meego just for the tablet market; it would be really hard when you couldn't leverage the same development effort as on the phone side.
Is Stephen Elop the ultimate gamekeeper turned poacher? How many rolling updates will Symbian receive and will that keep the balance sheet in black for the rest of the year? Will Nokia and Microsoft be able to get the Windows Phone code and hardware massaged into shape for a Q4 launch? All that and more coming up in 2011.
Yes, it really is an interesting time.
Ewan Spence, AAS, 14 Feb 2011