A Nokia Netbook Would Be The Boost Needed for Ovi and Nokia
Published by Ewan Spence at 8:00 UTC, February 27th 2009
The rumours of a Nokia Netbook have lit up the internet. Even though it would have been hard to deny, the opportunities for Nokia's software services would surely outweigh the cost of building a commodity consumer electronics device. Ewan explains why.
"We are looking very actively also at this opportunity," Nokia's Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo said to a Finnish Broadcaster. Well he would, wouldn't he? The rise of the netbooks in the last 12 months has been nothing short of a sea-change in attitudes in the laptop market. The old order of high profit margins for companies like Apple, Dell and HP has been upturned. Some are adapting (witness the Dell Inspiron Mini 10 just launched in the UK), while others are leaving a conspicuous gap in their product line up (Apple).
So when you as a CEO, are asked if you're looking at a brand new consumer electronics sector, then the answer is yes, we are looking at it; then don't commit yourself to actually doing anything about it, because you're focused on moving the company from hardware-led to being software and services-led. But then the Internet picks it up and becomes “Nokia looking to release a netbook”.
Now the romantic in me (and Steve) will be thinking that as the robust Symbian OS grew out of the OS that powered the award winning Psion machines (including their, cough, "netbook", in 1999, shown behind, in the photo below) then the machine would be the bestest cutest lil machine in the world. If they ask the Symbian Foundation nicely, then the EIKON interface can be dusted back down for public use and all will be right in the world.
They'll just need the applications to run on the device and they'll be set.
And when I sat down to write this piece, I have to say my thoughts were that Nokia shouldn't be looking at the netbook space. They've got enough on their plates at the moment, the new devices need attention and promotion, it will confuse the marketing message, there's very little profit in commodity devices...
At which I stopped that train of thought.
Nokia are looking to turn themselves into a company where their lead products are software based, and focussed on cloud computing. The need for a desktop computer is reduced – what's needed is a device to connect to the data, possibly store a local copy for syncing, display and manipulate it, and send it back to the cloud. I don't think that people are going to stomach a total cloud solution (I know I wouldn't be one of them) because accidents and problems do happen – witness this week's outage of GMail in the UK and Europe (America was sleeping, so you might not have read about it on Techmeme).
So a machine with a bit of storage, nice screen and keyboard, modern operating system... I'm sure you could argue that this is the N97 in terms of function but the form is not the 'hot form' at the moment. That belongs to laptop style machines with 9-10 inch screens, 80-90% sized keyboards, with a running battery life of around 5-6 hours while connected via Wifi or 3G.
To be honest, with Nokia's factories and manufacturing base, they should be able to churn out a netbook spec and sized machine to supply almost at cost basis (alternatively there are plenty of factories in China that are more than happy to produce some white label versions for the Finns). The key is not the hardware - as long as it hits the expected specs in the market, then Nokia have a good base design.
[Ewan luurrvvvveess his Eee PC.... Ed]
It is what goes in it that's the big question. The obvious leap is a version of Symbian OS, and I think that might depend on how much success the Symbian Foundation has in developing an OS that works on various form factors. Given that (a) UIQ tried this and didn't really pull it off and (b) they've suggested they'll be using S60 as a basis, the 'vanilla' Symbian OS isn't going to cut it
If Nokia are going down this route, I'd suggest doing what the majority of other manufacturers are doing and use Linux, probably with a custom theme on top of Ubuntu. While Maemo is kicking around, it's again for a small pocketable device with limited functionality (go on, argue with me). A Nokia netbook is going to need a decent 'proper' operating system. The magic sauce from Nokia would be two-fold. First they would be able to provide decent connectivity apps to their S40 and S60 devices. Secondly, they need to program an Ovi Suite of apps for Ubuntu that allows access and local storage to the address books, calendars, music stores, maps, share, and everything else under Ovi. Bingo, a full suite of PIM, Media and Entertainment apps.
(For extra bonus points they could release these for any Ubuntu users – that would set the cat amongst the pigeons).
To pull this off could be done with little distraction. All of this would need a small team of programmers, split out from the regular Nokia effort and packaged into a small office somewhere – a Tiger Team/Skunkworks operation, in essence. The original Skunkworks, by Lockheed, had Clarence Johnson running the regular Lockheed operation in the morning, before going cloak and dagger in the afternoon at the Skunkworks, building the U2 Spy plane, the SR-71 and the American Stealth Fighter.
Nokia has the software engineers to do this (and the cash pile to hire a few as well). It might not be Symbian, but it would boost the ecosystem of Ovi, which would be a huge boost to the company overall and to its smartphone system. Now, does anyone know anyone in Nokia that's got experience of PDA's, pocket computers and running a small team of programmers, that might be looking for a new project?
-- Ewan Spence, Feb 2009.
Rafe's comment
It's hardly a surprise that Nokia is taking a look at the laptop market, but this doesn't really tell us very much. Nokia will always being looking at adjacent business opportunities. I'm sure OPK had a reasonably idea that his comments to YLE might cause a reaction, though, in typical web style, it is being blown out of all proportion. As Ewan rightly points out Nokia has the necessary design and manufacturing competence to follow this through if it wishes.
However I would be wary of coming to the conclusion that Nokia is suddenly going to produce a Nokia branded laptop or net book as we visualise them today. Instead I would consider the way mobile phone and PC's in general are converging towards each other. The netbook and MID type devices are pushing downwards from the PC side while the smartphone, especially in the shape of devices like the N97, are pushing upwards from the mobile phone side. Nokia has been calling its Nseries devices 'multimedia computers' for some time now and described the N97 a 'laptop replacement'; clearly there is some marketing speak in such designations, but nor are they unreasonable categorisations.
This discussion also plays into the future of the netbook. Or you can look at it more broadly as a discussion about what will be the dominant personal computing device. I think you can argue that the netbook/laptop, as we visualise it now, has a limited shelf life. It's popular today because of the cost and practicality factors, but it is hardly an elegant solution being based on 'old' technologies and compromises. Might it not be replaced by mobile phones which have the ability to use external screens and other peripherals? Think about how many screens you have around you - in the home, in the office, on the plane. Certainly multi-core processors with SMP enabled OS's and flash memory mean that processing and storage will not be a significant limiting factor. What about new technologies such as foldable screens or conversational UI? Set this in the context of truly pocketable devices that you can take with you anywhere versus relatively bulky appliances.
I think the reality will be somewhere in between (and will vary greatly by market), but it easy to see why Nokia would be looking at this space; it is the future of what it is doing now. The question, with regards to laptops and netbooks, is not whether, but when Nokia will be in this market and what it will look like in a few years time.
The OS question will exercise some comments, but in the immediate future I would look at Maemo evolving onwards from its Internet tablet origins rather than the Symbian Foundation OS. Of course other Linux based options or Windows might also make sense if Nokia were to produce a netbook in the mold of the eePC tomorrow. Further into the future the picture is more complex - each OS option would have its own merits. The biggest constraint will be energy consumption and that could end up being the dominant OS architectural consideration in the years to come. Symbian OS is well placed here compared to some of its rivals. It may be a moot point anyway, given that the majority of the value will be in the service layer. Nokia's cross platform Qt based software and service layer (Ovi) will be at least as important, probably more so, than the OS on which it runs.
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That's what I call secure mobile banking. Now, where can I order my NX-01 and go where none have gone before?
P.S. I am shuddering for a reintroduction of UIQ, it might even occur with 'mice' abundant in netbooks. Though something Qt-ish seems a more likely candidate. I ever wondered why SonyEricsson slept through this... O wait they already make fat ugly umpc's and delightful laptops.
Kelly Johnson retired before the stealth projects, I think they were Ben Rich.
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Originally Posted by Ewan
Yes good catch on the CJ/Stealth, although I'll argue that the Sr71 was supremely stealthy for it's time, and he was still contributing to the F117 while Rich was the lead of the skunkworks
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THe SR-71 was not stealth as it did not need to be. It was simply faster than any other aircraft in the sky and most bullets on the ground. The pilots had to wear space suits and wait for the skin of the plane to cool down after their missions just so they could exit. If you ever heard an SR-71 go super sonic or take off, you would know that you were looking at something special.
Symbian is opensource to be. No doubt, a replacement OS for my netbook will arrive in due time! To be installed next to XP and Ubuntu!
May the force be with us!
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Originally Posted by sapporobaby
THe SR-71 was not stealth as it did not need to be. It was simply faster than any other aircraft in the sky and most bullets on the ground. The pilots had to wear space suits and wait for the skin of the plane to cool down after their missions just so they could exit. If you ever heard an SR-71 go super sonic or take off, you would know that you were looking at something special.
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In effect the Blackbird became the first stealth aeroplane, it's radar cross section was significantly lower than the numbers the B1B was able to achieve 25 years later... with the incredibly small radar cross section of a single engine Piper Cub .
Perhaps that tech could be incorporated into phones ;-)
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Originally Posted by Ewan
Ahem, lifted from Ben Rich's Biography:
In effect the Blackbird became the first stealth aeroplane, it's radar cross section was significantly lower than the numbers the B1B was able to achieve 25 years later... with the incredibly small radar cross section of a single engine Piper Cub . |
You are 100% (did not use as many 0's as a previous poster) however I was more so talking about the 71 from the context of actually seeing one up close and personal. Truly a thing of beauty.
I saw one take off in the 80s, complete with leaking fuel haze etc.
IMO, they should either make a better N8xx (ie faster, cheaper and slightly larger,which gives it more space for a bigger battery) or a bigger N97/5800.
The netbook market shows that people want a device that's smaller than a laptop but bigger than a smartphone - with all the same features (including 3G). [Insert Folio reference here].
It also shows that they're willing to move away from Windows if it's easy enough to use (S60 is well known). So, either a 7" N8xx-like device running Ubuntu Mobile (N8xx shows Nokia have the skills to deliver good hardware with Linux integration) or a 5" S60 Touch device (slightly lower resolution compared to N8xx but much more advanced in terms of application support and usability - and hopefully easier for Nokia to develop if it has exactly the same electronics - this could be part of the 'lots of form factors for different markets' theme).
I think this is really about the convergence between mobile phones and PC's which will be a dominant discourse at the high end in the next 5 years or so.
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Originally Posted by Unregistered
It's not going to be a laptop, this whole thing seemed to begin with a few comments from Mobile-Review. He mentioned the word 'netbook' but also sliding form factor 'with diamond shaped keys'.
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http://www.unwiredview.com/2009/02/2...rola-and-more/
http://www.unwiredview.com/2009/02/2...rola-and-more/
And it's going to take a long time before it does all the things I will need it to do. Hell, even linux doesn't fully do all the things XP does for me.
I can't help but wonder how good the batterylife will be though. Given the expirence they have in optimising for batterylife, it could well be very impressive.
1) Qt already runs on top Windows, Mac and Linux, which means that you can have proper PC applications on the converged device
2) Qt already runs on top of Linux smartphones and will very soon run on top of Symbian OS too. This means that you can have proper smartphone apps too on the converged device.
3) The underlying OS will likely be a version of Linux, because there are right now more Linux/Qt apps than SymbianOS/Qt apps.
There are also a couple of disadvantages to the concept:
4) This converged device will be a major threat to Microsoft, because the converged device will seriously diminish their Desktop PC monopoly. Microsoft wont take that lightly.
5) This converged device will also be a major threat to Intel, if the converged device will use an ARM processor, because it will diminish Intel's desktop processor business.
I can't see Nokia taking on both Microsoft and Intel at the same time, and even a direct Nokia versus Microsoft battle isn't something I believe Nokia can reasonably win at this moment. For Nokia to start making Netbooks is therefore I think too much of a declaration of war to the Desktop PC camp, and isn't something I expect them to do.
And why should Nokia be any more afraid of Microsoft than Assus or Acer for example, or any of the other companies that have traditionally been Microsoft OEMs but have now started selling Linux OS machines?
http://tabletschool.blogspot.com/200...-internet.html
Maemo as it stands is too close to Nokia's existing Symbian phone business to be of any commercial advantage to the company. But if they used it to make something different like a mini-laptop then maemo and symbian would complement each other instead of cannibalising each other.
| While Maemo is kicking around, it's again for a small pocketable device with limited functionality (go on, argue with me) |
The only practical difference between Nokia's Maemo devices and Asus's Linux laptops is the physical size, but what you actually see on the screen is identical. The lowest-end EEE PC, the 701, even has the same screen resolution as the Nokia N810.
If netbook users are allowed to seamlessly move from S60 phone to netbook and back again, then you have a compelling differentiator which the other players cannot easily replicate. If data and applications stored in the S60 and the netbook can seamlessly be used through the UIs of both devices, it would make it even more compelling. Obsolete and clumsy paradigms such as 'synching' must be well behind us; if not entirely dead and buried.
To achieve this, running Symbian in both devices would be almost a pre-requisite. There is nothing stopping Nokia from taking S60, adding in old (but legendary) ideas from EIKON, S90 etc, leveraging on their dominant position in the phone market, and offering a true netbook to the market, a netbook which is not just a shrunk down notebook, but, like Rafe said, the ultimate converged device.
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Originally Posted by xerxes
If Nokia was so scared of Microsoft they would have been using Windows Mobile for years.
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Secondly, the converged PC-smartphone device could very well be one of those tech thingies that nerds love and the average consumer hates. Not much point in wasting a lot of money on something that doesn't even exists yet.
| And why should Nokia be any more afraid of Microsoft than Assus or Acer for example, or any of the other companies that have traditionally been Microsoft OEMs but have now started selling Linux OS machines? |