The Perils of Fortune-telling in the Mobile World...

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Not exactly current news, but perhaps this might cheer someone up who's having a bad day: digging through AAS's archives reveals a series of predictions made in June 2002 by a venture capitalist giving a speech at a mobile developers conference. You can read some of these gems below, and I think you'll agree it's pretty amazing how "on the money" his forecasts have been...

  • Symbian, Palm and Windows Mobile will all have disappeared by 2007-2010
  • BREW will become the dominant phone development environment by 2007-2010
  • Nokia definitely won't be number one manufacturer in 2007, though it could be Motorola or perhaps Handspring
  • Cameraphones will be failures
  • Gaming on phones will be much more successful (this was the year before the original N-Gage launched, which was criticised for not having a camera)
  • Music phones are an "early adopter fluke" which won't catch on
  • Productivity applications interfere with phone calls, so they will fail too
  • 3G is "all talk and no action"
  • Video telephony will be huge
  • ...and the utterly immortal phrase: "BREW will be the iMode for the rest of the world"


...so pretty good, eh?