The next two years could be trickier than expected for the nascent mobile advertising industry (thinks Tricia Duryee at MocoNews). Agencies are likely to become more conservative in their approach, focusing on proven strategies to get the marketing word out. That could prevent advertising initiatives on various mobile platforms making a large impact on revenue.

The second dot com boom could well be coming to an end. With a reliance on advertising income to drive new services and software, there has been a thinking that you grab the users first, build up the numbers, and then turn to opportunities to generate income. Take your VC money to build up the service (ramp up to take off) and then get into the sky with however you'll earn income. If advertising money is not looking for the innovative products then less money means you need a longer runway of VC money.

And that's just for a regular web service. Add in a mobile component, and it looks even more complicated for the advertiser. How does the mobile screen compare to a two page colour spread in The Sunday Times?

The key is going to be if the industry can have a number of real world cases where the benefits of mobile (personal, interactive, lower cost) to results that are more worthwhile than traditional newspaper adverts (or even major website based advertising). If the old ways still work, there needs to be a bigger upside for the new methods to take hold. Is that there in the market now? Just about. Will it still be there in a recession. Logic says so, but that might not guarantee the advertising spend.

-- Ewan Spence, Oct 2008