Nokia's masterplan for 2010 and beyond (Capital Markets Day)
Published by Rafe Blandford, Steve Litchfield at 11:17 GMT, December 2nd 2009
At its annual Capital Markets Day, Nokia has laid out its masterplan for 2010 and beyond. Extracts from the full press release are reproduced below (there are several nuggets of interest) and Rafe and Ewan weigh in with a few comments of their own. None of them will come as a suprise to regular readers, but it is good to see Nokia laying out a framework for the next 12 months.
"Nokia CEO, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, highlighted Nokia's focus on user experience, stating: "In 2010, we will drive user experience improvements, and the progress we make will take the Symbian user interface to a new level. As an operating system, Symbian has reach and flexibility like no other platform, and we have measures in place to push smartphones down to new price points globally, while growing margins."
Highlights from the targets and forecasts:
- Nokia expects industry mobile device volumes to be up approximately 10% in 2010, compared to 2009.
- Nokia targets its mobile device volume market share to be flat in 2010, compared to 2009.
- Nokia targets to increase its mobile device value market share slightly in 2010, compared to 2009.
- Nokia continues to target Services net sales of EUR 2 billion or more in 2011.
- Nokia continues to target to have 300 million active users for its services by the end of 2011.
In addition to providing its key targets, Nokia also outlined key 'Devices & Services' operational priorities for 2010. These are:
- Improve our user experience
- Re-engineer our Symbian user interface; deliver a major product milestone before mid-year 2010, and another major product milestone before the end of 2010
- Deliver our first Maemo 6-powered mobile computer, with an iconic user experience, in the second half of 2010
- Significantly increase the proportion of touch and/or QWERTY devices in our smartphone portfolio
- Scale up our Services business by expanding geographically and in partnership with more operators
- Provide third party developers with better tools to create applications and content for our Ovi ecosystem
- Continue to build on our affordable and localized services offerings for emerging market consumers"
Read more in the full Nokia press release
Rafe's comments
Nokia are making it clear that, in 2010 and going forward, a key theme will be the improvement of user experience. Key drivers in this realm are a continuing evolution of the Symbian platform and the introduction of Maemo 6.
Nokia will re-engineer its Symbian user interface. The big user experience changes will come with Symbian^4, which sees a Qt based Orbit and Direct UI combination replacing AVKON. Symbian^4 and the new UI is likely to get its first demo in the second half of the year, but will likely only be on shipping devices in the first part of 2011.
However we can also expect to see step changes with the release of Symbian^2 (now) Symbian^3 (in the summer). With Symbian^2 we will see N97 mini like experiences (widgets) and some additional elements, such as location triggering, to a broad range of Symbian phones, in multiple form factor and input configurations, in the first half of the year.
Symbian^3, which we will see in devices in 2010, will add multiple home screens, consistent one-tap navigation, and multi-touch gestures (limited support) in the user experience domain. Additionally NFC support, better data networking / bearer management, graphics acceleration in UI, CalDAV, remote Contacts, HDMI out, improved Bluetooth (e.g. AVRCP 1.4) and initial support for the Qt application framework (allowing for forwardly compatible applications) will also be included and, in part, impact on user experience.
At Capital Markets Day Nokia pointed out some real world advantages noting that Symbian^3 would be three times as fast as previous versions (e.g. scrolling at 60 frames per second versus 15 frames per second) and that Symbian^3 sees the removal of some 300+ user prompts (are you sure want to...).
Nokia are making a clear commitment to deliver the first Maemo 6 device in 2010. This represents step 5 of 5 for Nokia's Maemo project and looks set to be the first truly 'consumer ready' Maemo based solution. I'm expecting a great deal of refinement to both the software and the hardware, although the mobile computing led approach remains the core value. Maemo 6 is the first version to have its application and UI framework built on top of Qt, which will bring a greater level of commonality between Maemo and Symbian for third party developers, especially with the introduction of Symbian^4.
What's also clear is that Symbian and Maemo are Nokia's key platforms going forward. Symbian will become Nokia's primary platform (by device net sales). Maemo will focus on a high end mobiule computing led segment where Nokia expects to see significant growth. However Series 40 will still play an important role in connecting the next billion people.
Slides from Nokia Capital Markets Day
The Capital Markets Day press release refers to two major product milestones. This aligns with the upcoming release of Symbian. We can expect to see a greater number of touch and/or QWERTY devices in the smartphone portfolio. It seems likely that this means we will see the first touch devices in the Eseries segment in 2010 and a continuation of the QWERTY across Nokia's device portfolio trend that has been prevalent in 2009. We will see an increasing number of hybrid devices (QWERTY and touch).
Slide from Nokia Capital Markets Day
Nokia's commitment to services remains a key business-building area (EUR 2 billion) with projected increases in the number of Ovi service users (now 70 million - to 300 million over the next 26 months). Service availability will expand geographically as Nokia signs up additional operator partners.
Ewan's Comments
I think it's time to put on the Columbo hat here, because this press release is pretty rich with detail and plans for next year and beyond. Forget the cuddly presentations and CGI videos, this is the meat. As with any press release, the key takeaway should be in the first paragraph. Here it is:
“Senior company executives outlined how Nokia's focus on execution combined with its core competitive advantages, position the company to achieve and sustain broad-based success in the mobile devices market. “
So Nokia are going to look at how they deliver something – well that's the same of any company, but “core competitive advantages” is a tricky one. In part this is saying we can keep being a success because we're already a success. There is an obvious danger there, but by stating their plans ahead of time in such a public way we can at least see they know where the problems are.
Symbian is still the OS of choice - currently powering the high-end smartphones but now having a strong share in the midrange, Nokia have publicly stated the S60 user interface needs a radical change. Significant improvements were on display - watch this space for more on this.
Why is Symbian OS so vital? Well apart from the UI, the underlying code is strong and bulletproof if handled correctly – something Nokia should have experience in, although recent firmware issues do make you wonder. The sheer depth and volume of the Symbian platform in the mid-range is going to provide a numerically attractive range... but there will still be fracturing, be it on a model basis, regional basis, individual networks and in how you can reach out to the consumers as much as developers. It's good to say “the numbers are there” (because that is a competitive advantage!) but it's how Nokia evangelise this to bring the developers to Ovi Store that is key.
While no specific models were announced, two major “product milestones” are to be delivered on Symbian during 2010, one at the end of Q2, and one at the end of Q4. These are not necessarily going to be handsets, but the timing of mid 2010 would be about right for a new “hero” device carrying the updates S60 UI, and will likely be a Symbian ^3 product. As to the second device, that could well be something debuting at Nokia World for availability in 2011.
Maemo 6's first device is also due in the second half of 2010 – it's doubtful that everyone online will pick up on this as evidence that the two OS will complement each other - they'll find something more nefarious between the lines.
Is all of this the right strategy for Nokia? Obviously they think so, and laying it out clearly not only helps communicate their thinking and mindset to the world, but also provides a yardstick for sites such as ourself to measure their progress. Whether it's the right strategy or the right goals, well that's one for discussion.
Categories: Miscellaneous, Industry, Events
Platforms: General, MeeGo
News Discussion
They dont seem to be thinking that they can gain market share now. I guess not letting it drop will be a equally big challenge, considering all the flak they have been taking lately.
Nokia targets to increase its mobile device value market share slightly in 2010, compared to 2009
What is device value market???
Re-engineer our Symbian user interface; deliver a major product milestone before mid-year 2010, and another major product milestone before the end of 2010
This I like. I hope they churn out something good... :) 2 flagships on the way :)
I have some hopes (I'm a shareholder for chrissakes :o ) and I think they've realised what a hole they're potentially in but I'm yet to be convinced they realise how serious the two years of inactivity/touch screen complacency between 2007 and 2009 have been or know how to implement a market leading solution.The N97 is a worrying disaster no matter how they spin it, it's worrying they seem unable to admit it or rectify it and indeed how it got out the door and was trumpeted as an iPhone beater. There is a worrying disconnect with reality which is reminiscent of Sony Ericsson and look what a mess they're in and even more of IBM or Rank Xerox.
Now they've got to deliver a finished functioning top end product and junior spin offs into the mid and low tier sectors inside six months or they'll possibly never recover. Samsung are pounding them on cheap touchscreen sales- yeah Nokia's maybe smart but people in the lower-tier seem to prefer the simplicity and reliability of the Sammies and in the top tier they're getting killed by Apple (and we haven't even see that launch on Voda and through Tesco's in UK yet but look at the effect when it launched on Orange) and for business by RIM and there is a raft of Android devices either just launched or due for Q1 most on 2.0 and the probability it's going to be pushed down the price points.
There are a few bright spots, their music sales seem to be doing well in India and some other developing economies, the N900 although clearly a work in progress has bought them some time in the top-end after the N97 debacle or rather suspension of hostilities but they really need to drive it home and find it in them to create a decent Symbian flagship or series of mid tier compelling winners or they're rightly gonna get pounded. All this talk of end Q2 game changing device, who else brings out new handsets mid year?? After getting torched on N97 I can't believe that many will be early adopters of a new Nokia flagship rather than wait for a few months or get the new Apple which will work straight away (fool me once.......). I also have seen sketchy blueprints of new smaller iPhone floating around. I know Rafe thinks they can't do a mini at the hardware/price point, I'm not so sure at all. Suddenly get a small £200-£250 iPhone unlocked ?
I'm mildly amused by your typical blinkered shareholder pessimism ;-)
> The Stock Market doesn't think much of it
Yes, because the stock market is highly stable and full of people that know and understand the market sector well, and don't react to every little piece of nonsense coming out of 'analysts' mouths. Not.
> how serious the two years of inactivity/touch screen complacency between 2007 and 2009 have been or know how to implement a market leading solution.
Yes, because the 5800 as just one example was only one of or the most popular touch smartphones in the UK and elsewhere, has been one of Nokia's most successful devices anywhere, got rave reviews etc, and was the most popular music player of ANY sort in the UK.
> Samsung are pounding them on cheap touchscreen sales
And you're comparing smartphones with smartphones, right? Wrong. If you're going to make that comparison I can say something like Nokia are pounding Nokia on cheap mobile phone sales because their S40 line outsells their S60 line.
> and in the top tier they're getting killed by Apple
This is utter myth and rubbish, not borne out by facts. Nokia smartphones have 38.9% global market share (and as high as 80% in regions like Asia Pacific, the global total being dragged down by the US which is not that important a market). Apple have 17.3% global share. Apple achieved 6.7% growth in the last year, while Nokia achieved 6% growth on much larger sales. None of these figures mean Nokia are "getting killed by" Apple, or anywhere close. You'd do well not to believe any of the rubbish written by US technology blogs who can't see beyond the end of the iPhone in their hands.
> there is a raft of Android devices
You gotta laugh at this. Android only just showed up on the stats it's sales were so small, and now accounts for only 3.5% smartphone share. If Android ever gets well into the double digits in market share then it will be interesting, but honestly, at the moment it's trading solely on hype and most sales are in the US where they don't know any better.
> see recent AdMob data
No thanks. Admob data shows only what phone is accessing mobile internet sites displaying Admob ads. There is a significant disconnect between that and actual handset sales, especially as for multiple reasons (like iPhone owners having a data plan forced on them) iPhones, Android etc get more used for web access.
> who else brings out new handsets mid year??
Apple, usually, as just one example.
> After getting torched on N97
You're sure of that are you? I thought sales had been pretty good, and it was mainly a few ignorant bloggers bitching about it.
> or get the new Apple which will work straight away
Don't get me started on the numerous considerable drawbacks of iPhones vs Nokia smartphones. Cost being the immediate one that kills potential iPhone market share.
> I also have seen sketchy blueprints of new smaller iPhone floating around
Well, I've seen actual photographs of Elvis living in a bus on the moon, on the cover of the Sunday Sport, which seems a tad more reliable evidence to me.
But I want 3D Acceleration again!!!
I want POWER again.
Only then will I ever look at another Nokia :)
>Yes, because the 5800 as just one example was only one of or the most popular >touch smartphones in the UK and elsewhere, has been one of Nokia's most >successful devices anywhere, got rave reviews etc, and was the most popular >music player of ANY sort in the UK.
As it ought to have been given the massive coverage it got/gets and the crazy cheap price of the thing. The Comes with Music clearly helped, but don't Nokia lose dosh on each and every one of those?
>And you're comparing smartphones with smartphones, right? Wrong. If you're >going to make that comparison I can say something like Nokia are pounding >Nokia on cheap mobile phone sales because their S40 line outsells their S60 line.
And of course when you get to talk about market share later against iPhone, you will conveniently ignore that a large part of Nokia's numbers are made up of crappy little low end or mid tier handsets that just HAPPEN to run S60, on 2" screens.
>This is utter myth and rubbish, not borne out by facts.
Ah, facts, they are great things :-)
>Nokia smartphones have 38.9% global market share (and as high as 80% in >egions like Asia Pacific, the global total being dragged down by the US which is not
Ah, there we are. How much of this % is for the low end crap?
I would love to see a comparison between high end Nokia stuff, N97 and Mini for example, vs 3GS.
Here is a fact, in my group of friends and people I see often, lets say 20 people, 2 years ago, 10 of these (like me) had a Nokia N95 or 95 8GB, a couple had the old iPhone, and the rest had old crappy phones like S40 etc.
Today, this same group of people, 12 of them now have iPhones, 4 of these are 3GS based on seeing mine, 3 of them still have their N95 8GBs, but will be replacing with iPhone soon. The thing you gotta remember is this, the people that 2 years ago had the N95s are getting iPhone, BUT so are the people that had the crappy S40s.
When did you last use an iPhone (3GS) for a week? And before you brand me a fanboi, I currently own an N97 mini, and have had 2 N97s recently.
>the moment it's trading solely on hype and most sales are in the US where they >don't know any better.
Android certainly is not "there" yet, but the increase in market share is stunning, and the support from Networks is strong.
Consider this, O2 in the UK for example offer the iPhone, the Android Samsung 7500, and the Palm Pre, but do they sell the N97 or N97 Mini? nope, and if you were Nokia, that really ought to worry you.
>No thanks. Admob data shows only what phone is accessing mobile internet sites >displaying Admob ads. There is a significant disconnect between that and actual >handset sales, especially as for multiple reasons (like iPhone owners having a data >plan forced on them) iPhones, Android etc get more used for web access.
Hrmm, I don't suppose it could be that accessing the web from iPhone and Android is about a million times nicer than an N97 could it? Look, I go online with my lovely new N97 mini, and about 20% of my screen is covered with a pop up I can not get rid of! If I need to access a quick web page I would think nothing of using the iPhone to do this, saves getting the Macbook fired up, but I would never bother if I only had the N97, it is not in the same league.
BTW, I am deeply sorry that I have to write this, as you will see if you have a look at my blog, I am really a Nokia fanboy, trying NOT to like the iPhone so much :-)
>Apple, usually, as just one example.
Yep, and people queue for bloody hours to buy one, daft buggers.
>You're sure of that are you? I thought sales had been pretty good, and it was >mainly a few ignorant bloggers bitching about it.
Oh, best not look at www.kevwright.com :-), at least I am not American.
>Don't get me started on the numerous considerable drawbacks of iPhones vs >Nokia smartphones. Cost being the immediate one that kills potential iPhone >market share.
Seriously though, have a go, stick to 3GS though. Cost? N97 unlocked £500 ish, Apple iPhone 32GB £540, that includes a year unlimited data and wi-fi that the Nokia does not, so surely about even?
>Well, I've seen actual photographs of Elvis living in a bus on the moon, on the >cover of the Sunday Sport, which seems a tad more reliable evidence to me.
You know, Elvis is alive, and he has a Nokia smartphone with a decent email client that is easy to setup out of the box, and when you read the email it does not look like something out of the 80's.
Kev
They also need to stop releasing mildly differing variants on devices as well - how many N series variants do they really need to release? The Mini shows that they got it wrong with the N97, but having both on the market just feeds the potential confusion.
They really only need a few form factors - candy bar, slider, touch screen and touch screen with physical keyboard.
Currently they have :
N97, N97 Mini, 6760 (fugly)
Slide : N96, N86, N85, 6710, 6210
Touch only : 5800, 5530, X6
Candybar : N79, 5730, 5630, 6720
Qwerty : E72, E71, E63
T9/qwerty : E75, E55, E52, E51
Slider : E66
So thats up to 5 phones occupying overlapping market segments. On each one they seem to start the firmware development from scatch and introduce a totally new series of bugs that didn't exist previously.
They DESPARATELY need to rationalise their product range, concentrate on quality of the software on the devices, test them thoroughly prior to release (which they haven't done on S60 for what, 3 or 4 years now?)
Hopefully with Symbian^3/4 being developed "outside" of Nokia, it should improve quality, but no doubt its going to be butchered for every phone that they bring to market.
I guess I've been a bit of a Nokia fanboi at times, but the shortcomings of their devices is getting way too painful to bear now. I get wound up by shortcomings in application testing, and Nokias apparent decision to beta test products by asking people to buy them is utterly inexcusable.
Stay calm, carry on.
For the record I bought Nokia shares this year around Euro 9.50 on the late summer dip there on the basis that I liked some of what they were doing/ thinking of. The subsequent execution of N97, OVI store etc. have been a bit of a worry since to me.
If however we don't say it a s we see it (and of course I could be wrong and no I wasn't sighting the stock market as rational but it does express the sum total of peoples' feelings in one number and the pessimism in Nokia's case has been well founded this year), then we continue the small-world thinking that led to the downfall of such #1's as Xerox and GM.
Move along now.............
|
Here is a fact, in my group of friends and people I see often, lets say 20 people, 2 years ago, 10 of these (like me) had a Nokia N95 or 95 8GB, a couple had the old iPhone, and the rest had old crappy phones like S40 etc. Today, this same group of people, 12 of them now have iPhones, 4 of these are 3GS based on seeing mine, 3 of them still have their N95 8GBs, but will be replacing with iPhone soon. The thing you gotta remember is this, the people that 2 years ago had the N95s are getting iPhone, BUT so are the people that had the crappy S40s. |
I think that's one thing people miss - just how much of the high end is driven by fashion which is a very fickle beast indeed.
For all the talk of revamping S60 UI, a few firmware upgrades later, the 5800XM is turning out to be a nifty little machine - very practical and tough as old boots. I like it - I expect this to continue to sell and may beat the N95 sales wise.
I'll certainly invest in Nokia now the stock is so cheap.
|
Originally Posted by malerocks
Re-engineer our Symbian user interface; deliver a major product milestone before mid-year 2010, and another major product milestone before the end of 2010
This I like. I hope they churn out something good... :) 2 flagships on the way :) |
I suspect 2010 will be a fairly weak year for Nokia as far as good, innovative devices go (much like 2009, and even 2008 for the most part). Probably just underpowered, "refreshed" versions of this year's devices (shiny new covers, minor cosmetic fixes to sw, but otherwise same-old-same-old).
Let's just hope that the 2011 devices in the high-end will be competitive compared to the high-end devices other manufacturers also release in 2011. It'd be too bad if their 2011 devices are only competitive with what the competitors have now.
|
Originally Posted by Mr Mark
Sure, and two years from now they'll be getting whatever's hot whether that's an iPhone, a Nokia, an HTC or something else.
I think that's one thing people miss - just how much of the high end is driven by fashion which is a very fickle beast indeed. |
Wish there was an XDA Devs or Dev-Team for Nokia :-)
The hardware on N97 is OK, just needs a decent OS
Kev
|
Originally Posted by kevwright
Oh for sure, a few of them are in it for fashion, but a core of 8 or 9 of us have genuinely changed from being S60 nuts to iPhone nuts. I am not saying I will not change back, indeed I have used £750 worth of new Nokia kit in past 10 days, and am just shocked at how poor the current software is.
Wish there was an XDA Devs or Dev-Team for Nokia :-) The hardware on N97 is OK, just needs a decent OS Kev |
and 8 or 9 of you speak for everybody ? there are some of us that still want to be able to send an mp3 via bluetooth, install apps as needed and not have the bloated iTunes forced on us. Pls speak for yourself, ok.
|
Originally Posted by Jaggz
Can I just ask, why does this thread have an Ovi Gaming logo at the top? ^_^
|
|
Originally Posted by oniox
and 8 or 9 of you speak for everybody ? there are some of us that still want to be able to send an mp3 via bluetooth, install apps as needed and not have the bloated iTunes forced on us. Pls speak for yourself, ok.
|
I agree 100% that to send file over bluetooth is very handy, but with an iPhone I do not need to do so, since each time I connect it to my Macbook (iTunes certainly does not feel bloated on a proper computer like a Macbook) it updates all my media in a few seconds.
As a point of interest, you could use an iPhone quite happily without ever connecting it to iTunes :-)
And what does "install apps as needed" refer to in this scenario? I can install whatever apps I want thanks?
Kev
Now they've got to deliver a finished functioning top end product and junior spin offs into the mid and low tier sectors inside six months or they'll possibly never recover. Samsung are pounding them on cheap touchscreen sales- yeah Nokia's maybe smart but people in the lower-tier seem to prefer the simplicity and reliability of the Sammies QUOTE]
I've been trying to replace my Nokia 5800 (I've had it 10 months and would like a change) and I've looked hard at Samsungs. They don't come anywhere near the 5800, they are nowhere near as simple, as full featured or as useful. Having scanned the forums, they are pretty poor at reliability too. They have some eye candy stuff, but no way could I replace a 5800 with one.
Their cameras are shyte, their battery life is poor. No iPlayer downloads, no decent Facebook app or general application availability. Also stupid software faults and no OTA backup. Maps, browser, rubbish email app and tedious setup for access points, I could go on. Currently there is nothing on the market to replace my 5800, and I've tried very hard.
A friend of mine today tried to play a music track on his iPhone before it had finished downloading. His music library is now unusable.
But it's only Nokias that have problems.
|
Originally Posted by kevwright
@ajck
As it ought to have been given the massive coverage it got/gets and the crazy cheap price of the thing. The Comes with Music clearly helped, but don't Nokia lose dosh on each and every one of those? |
|
Originally Posted by snoFlake
A friend of mine today tried to play a music track on his iPhone before it had finished downloading. His music library is now unusable. But it's only Nokias that have problems. |
Kev
|
Originally Posted by Unregistered
A quick hook up to iTunes and he should be sorted. Kev |
Needs ipodrip or something.
Shouldn't have happened, a proper sorted phone would never have had a problem so easy. ;)
|
Originally Posted by Unregistered
No they don't lose money. And the VAST majority of 5800s sold don't have Comes With Music bundled.
|
Also, not sure how many 5800 they have sold, but I have seen a press release saying they have sold 3 million ON CWM.
Kev
|
Originally Posted by kevwright
As a point of interest, you could use an iPhone quite happily without ever connecting it to iTunes :-)
|
|
Originally Posted by kevwright
A quick hook up to iTunes and he should be sorted. |
|
Originally Posted by kevwright
Didn't work. Needs ipodrip or something. Shouldn't have happened, a proper sorted phone would never have had a problem so easy. ;) |
Kev
|
Originally Posted by Unregistered
I wish I'd seen that before I replied to:
Very very poor. |
Kev