Analyst sees Symbian shipments reaching 180m by 2014
Published by Rafe Blandford at 12:21 BST, October 2nd 2009
Juniper Research, a telecoms analyst firm, recently released a report on Mobile Open Source Operating Systems, which predicts open source platforms will remain predominant and that, by 2014, Symbian handset shipments will increase from 87 million to 180 million per year, with Android and Limo adding 40m/year extra and taking the open source total to 220 million/year. Such analyst reports are educated guesses, but it does provide an antithesis to the 'Symbian is doomed' line that was popular, in some quarters, earlier this summer and a good jumping off place for some further platform thoughts. Read on for more.
A disclaimer: Future market share figures in analyst reports are generally based on the results of a predictive model (spreadsheet) constructed with a number of inputs and assumptions. There's no special 'secret input' beyond experience and an understanding of the industry; in general there's no extra information on shipments beyond that which companies make publicly available. As such, reports that look at future market share are notoriously inaccurate. For example this 2006 report, from The Diffusion Group, predicted that Linux (26%) and Windows Mobile (29%) would overtake Symbian (22%) by the end of 2010 (and this is by no means exceptional).
The Juniper report suggests that Symbian market share will remain flat at around 50%, a figure which Symbian itself has mentioned in recent media interviews. Further, it envisions combined Android and Limo shipments of 40 million. These figures might be considered a little low, but the mobile platform market is currently more unpredictable that it has been for several years.
Market share figures (based on Gartner Data) - where next?
While Android is the current platform poster boy, amongst geeks, it has yet to achieve significant shipments and faces some unanswered questions around long term fragmentation and commercialization. Furthermore, the release of Vodafone 360's dedicated handsets last week (H1 and M1), which run Limo R2, point to increasing competition for Android. The Limo Foundation has the backing of 3 major UK operators (Telefonica, Vodafone and Orange) and Android may find itself facing tough competition from operator specified and controlled Limo handsets in the UK and other markets.
Symbian retains the strong backing of Nokia which make it, de-facto, the dominant player. 2011 will see the release of Symbian^4 and the completion of the move to open source, which could see a resurgence of interest from other manufacturers. At the same time, it will need to prove the workability of its open governance model in a fast moving mobile industry. Its strength is in its ability to effectively address the mass market, but the high end remains important for device profits and mindshare. It will continue to face intensifying competition there.
At the same time, the closed source platforms will continue to be active. RIM face an uncertain long term future with the Blackberry OS and related developer offerings, but such obstacles should be set against its dominant incumbent position as the enterprise solutions provider, especially in the US. Windows Mobile will be looking to rejuvenate itself and increase its consumer appeal with Windows Mobile 7. With 6.5 providing a possible avenue for cheaper mid-tier devices, the commitment of Microsoft to the mobile market should not be underestimated.
Apple will continue to develop its iPhone line of devices, with a key question being whether it will be able to move away from its 'boutique' status and address the mid tier market while maintaining its momentum at the high end in the face of fiercer competition. Palm and its WebOS is likely to need further funding to survive and its long term future is dependent upon the creation of a strong 'boutique' brand with a continual flow of innovative devices and software.
Rafe Blandford, All About Symbian, 2 October 2009
Categories: Industry, Editorial Thoughts
Platforms: General, S60 3rd Edition, S60 5th Edition
News Discussion
I'd agree on the Android front, though I think even that market share is optimistic. Android is mostly hype at the moment, with plenty of potential problems, and little substance. Having done a professional study of it's SDK I'd say the OS has (had?) much potential, but currently it hasn't really got off the starting blocks. This will only change if we see lots of handsets actually in people's pockets. It's market share is miniscule at the moment.
I think many analysts would disagree somewhat with your outlook on WinMo. Ballmer (Steve, CEO) gave a presentation (http://www.microsoft.com/mscorp/exec...fficiency.mspx) very recently and made no mention of mobile (in the sense of phones rather than laptops) in MS' future. Most analysts and industry opinion seems to converge on the gradual decline of WinMo - it really is a pretty hopeless piece of software, and more of a fundamental problem - MS have proven time and time again that they don't understand mobile phones. Not surprising given their history on being so PC centric, and attaining their dominance through marketing and questionable business practices, rather than quality.
iPhone is a real minority handset (and platform), and unless we see a cheap and good iPhone Nano type device, it will remain so. 1% of the global market is not really that significant, even it makes a few developers a bit of money.
The future is Symbian's, if it grabs it.
Great to see some facts breaking out in the midst of over-zealous blog entries...
Unregistered - thanks for your comments. I think there's always a disconnect between observers of the industry versus those who analyse it (or have more experience). Amongst observers there a tendency to extrapolate based on current high end device. Its also difficult to see outside your own market (emerging markets tend to get less attention that they deserve). In some sense the same thing happens with open mobile OS (smartphones) versus proprietary software in general. Its important to keep things in perspective as they only make up part of the market (i.e. feature phones still 'rule').
As for Windows Mobile - yes there's been some mixed messages recently (and no question the current state is not good), but I don't really see Microsoft withdrawing altogether. I personally think Windows Mobile will stay around, but we may see Microsoft explore other mobile options (e.g. Nokia alliance, Danger acquisition, Zune). Definitely room for uncertainty here though, so yes I may be being too optimistic.
The iPhone sold 5.2 million units (mainly 3G but with perhaps a million 3GS in there) last quarter of which roughly half were sold in the US where Nokia has no meaningful presence. This means they sold, say, 2.8 million outside the US.
Nokia on the other hand sold over 3 million more smartphones than they did in the yearly quarter on quarter comparison meaning that they increased their ex-US sales volumes more than the total number of ex-US iPhone sales. That kind of puts things into perspective.
Of course the iPhone is a great phone but I do think the tech press get a bit carried away with the hype.
But yeah, I love to see people starting to get things into a bit more perspective. SF is here, alive and kicking, and likely to be the absolutely undisputed market leader for a LONG time to come.
| It makes me laugh when people compare a manufacturers sales from MUTLIPLE Telephony companies of that of another manufacturer from a SINGLE telephony company. |
As for multiple carriers, the iPhone is available on 5 carriers in Australia. It's improved sales a bit but Nokia still outsell it comfortably. Plus, of course, the 5800 outsells it in most ex-US markets too.
Like the article shows, you can actually research this stuff if you want to. Beats pointless hype any day.
> Then again, from a business point of view, in some sense all that matters is how much profit you are making - iPhone is capturing a much larger share of the market if one looks at it that way.
What? That completely doesn't make sense :) Are you trying to say Apple's profits on iPhone sales outweigh Nokia's profits on their vastly larger sales? That makes no sense at all, and is false.
And how is either of that related to market share? Profits do not imply market share. The other way round can see some correlation but it's not an absolute direct linkage.
Focus on profit alone is not at all sensible. Depending on your business plan, a loss-making strategy this year and next is quite acceptable, if the goal is longer term.
Not applicable to Nokia though, they are turning profits.
Silly statements like:
"Nokia are going down the hole because they won't add xenon flash.....won't add kinetic scrolling to their old phones..... won't use capacitive screens". All of these decisions by Nokia have sound reasons.
If you are sellign snap-on covers for Nokia phones, Nokia's huge market share in basic phones is hugely important, but if you are selling Symbian OS software, Nokia's huge market size in basic phones is largely irrelevant.
If you sell iPhone software, the size of the iPod touch user base is very relevant, but if you sell voice and data services, you couldn't care less.
Some have hinted on this, but I would like to hear Rafe's opinion on what opportunities the various platforms give to 3rd parties, particularly 3rd party developers, but also operators and any other businesses other than the manufacturer's that can influence the long term viability of a platform.
What do you think, Rafe?
Max.
Nokia is just starting to work on the Software side of things with the N900 and S60V5 updates.......will Nokia and Symbian be leaving soon....no, but than again I do see other platforms catching up.
There are other analysis out that say Iphone can double in market share if they end exclusivity deals with Carrier....it happened in France, so the potential is there. To be fair, the Iphone is a single phone that competes with Symbian, Winmo, and Android with multiple phones.
Similarly I think we will have to see how WebOS, Android, and Apple OS develops to see how competitive it will be....don't forget that Nokia is moving towards Maemo phones as well and how that will play out is also interesting to see how it will affect Symbian sales.
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Originally Posted by tkao2025
There are other analysis out that say Iphone can double in market share if they end exclusivity deals with Carrier....it happened in France
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However, Apple probably has so restrictive agreements for the permission to offer iPhone, that not all operators are going to accept them.