Now The Music Has Stopped, Does Nokia Have A Seat in America?

[slitchfield]

While I'm sure the problem is not as simple as he makes out, Robert Scoble's reasoning on why Palm can now rule the American smartphone market and why both Microsoft and Nokia are out the game, makes for a great rule of thumb. In short, there are six smartphone/OS competitors (Nokia, Microsoft and Palm as mentioned, plus Apple, Research in Motion and Google Android) and only four US networks (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile). Now the music has stopped, there are no seats left for the phones from Espoo and Seattle. Read on for my take on all this....

Read on in the full article.

[Sergey Zak]

Let me guess - S60 is not "simple enough" for Americans?

Nokia should at least consider offering Android as an alternative OS in the US market. RIM/Blackberry currently owns the enterprise segment, but the iPhone and Android platforms are shaping up to be the main contenders for the consumer battle (Palm's WebOS is still TBD).

In 2009, HTC, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Asus, Lenovo, Huawei, Garmin, Kogan, Openmoko and others have announced plans to deliver Android devices. Netbooks/MIDs & home appliances may also be seen supporting Android in 2009. This flood of Android devices in to the US market is likely to attract a HUGE developer community.

Why not Nokia devices also?

Android is open source, so it can be tailored for a Nokia look-and-feel. Supporting Android would also allow Nokia to offer Ovi services to ALL Android devices...not just Nokia Symbian devices. Perhaps Android presents an opportunity, rather than a threat.

[bartmanekul]

Why offer android too?

I am still convinced that sorting out a decent rival to appstore would be the answer to a multitude of problems for symbian.

Better sales would lead to more developers, more programs, more choice, and so on.

Customers and networks alike would surely be more receptive to Nokia devices then.

It's not that S60 isn't simple enough for Americans, it's that in some aspects S60 is too simple for Americans. Any smartphone OS that takes off in the USA is going to be driven from businesses into the consumer market, just like the PC was. S60 is just not enterprise ready, and probably never will be.

[chlettn]

Why Nokia won't offer Android device is very easy to explain: Nokia is trying to get into the service business, Android forces the user to use Google services.


I don't agree with Scoble's premise to his whole "analysis" - no carrier in the US is quite as *married* to a single platform/manufacturer as he tries to make it sound. And when he says "I’ve seen the new Nokia OS, just a month ago.", I'm really not quite sure what he's trying to say. It's still Symbian, it's still S60 - there's nothing fundamentally new about it other than a new home screen and a few tweaks here and there.

If he means that S60 needs an overhaul, I basically agree. But despite all those new smartphone wunderkinds, I think S60 works well - if Nokia/SymbianFoundation:

-updates the UI looks a bit (which I guess will come with Symbian 9.5 and ScreenPlay)

-overhauls some basic issues (better text entry a la SE, threaded SMS finally part of the default system, more flexible and functional homescreen as default, HTML emails, better Ovi and other services integration with syncing of stuff, small details like graphical smilies and a couple of other things that really should be do-able quite easily)

-adds a few shiny new core applications like a better browser (maybe by completely teaming up with Mozilla?), "cooler" media center app (shiny stuff always impresses people, after all) and a replacement of the default mail app with a merged Messaging/MfE/Notes app

-ADD A PROPER APP STORE!

the public impression of S60 might change quite a bit, without huge changes or massive effort.

And if they finally consolidate their services to a coherent whole, they're actually pretty well positioned imho.

And in any case: Nokia is at least trying to get more phones to the US. AT&T seems to finally pick up the E71, and I wouldn't be surprised if some carrier takes up the recently announced E63 NAM as well. As low-cost consumer QWERTY device, I think it might do very well in the US market.

If you were to stand outside the Nokia store on Michigan Avenue here in Chicago and ask people what an unlocked mobile device is, they would have no idea what you are talking about! To begin with, nobody uses "mobile" here, it is still "cell" or "wireless" and unlocked is, pardon the pun, foreign as they don't know that what they have in their pocket will only work with their provider.

So not only is there a campaign needed to sell the US on Nokia, but on the concept of unlocked devices as well. Other than Nokia, the options for unlocked devices in the US has been slim. Palm offered the Treo 680, which it no longer does, plus just recently an unlocked Centro.

Most US consumers are just now catching onto the thing in their pocket being more than a phone. Everyone who has an iPhone either blindly loves it or has a love/hate relationship, but is drinking the Jobs' Kool-Aid and will change to AT&T. Everybody else shops first by provider, and that is where all the marketing goes. Most providers offer about a half-dozen "free" phones with a 2-year contract, and people will choose one of them, most likely the one with the coolest colors. T-Mobile will not argue with you when you say you want just a SIM for the contract, and then you'll end up taking a free phone for a backup, as I have.

For people like myself, the very small minority, it's sad. For the majority, they just don't know. Until they travel to Europe and find out their phone won't work, or it will cost a pile of money for it to do so.

So not only does Nokia or whoever need to sell the sizzle, but the concept of eating steak as well!

mp/m

Mike Maddaloni
thehotiron.com

[ajck]

Totally agree with chlettn.

Other points;

Nokia SHOULD NOT go Android. Big mistake. I love Android, it's design and it's potential, but S60 is equally as good in general (and better in some things) and is where Nokia have real power and experience. Nokia are not one of these cheap Asian chase-the-pennies manufacturers like HTC et al. S60 is not a 2nd best, it is a real market leading power house, technically and with installed base.

Nokia need to spruce up S60 a bit, fix the obvious problems as chlettn pointed out, and sort out their crap marketing strategy in the US.

They also MAJORLY need to sort out the whole development issue - i.e. us developers need to be able to program S60 through an API and language that is as easy to use and understand as iPhone's AND an SDK, emulators, etc. that are as wonderful and integrated as iPhone's. There is NO reason Nokia cannot radically improve developer tools.

They also REALLY need to sort out an appstore. Download! is a travesty, everyone agrees this. Interestingly though, it provides a solid basis for an appstore and would not take that much to overhaul the UI etc. to make it as good as iPhone's. And again more PR to end users. And stop hiding it in some irrelevant sub menu.

Comment above re: S60 in the enterprise is nonsense. This is a Microsoft-worldview. What Nokia are doing pushing S60 into midrange phones and hiding the fact they are actually smartphones is exactly right. Ordinary users don't want to be geeks. Give them power that they get without them specifically seeking "a smartphone" when they go in the shop. Educate them about the tasks they can now achieve better etc because they have S60 (without mentioning S60 - too geeky). Nokia policy is right. The enterprise is already taking care of itself well with regard to Nokia infiltration.

Alex
phonething.com (software dev, industry consultant).

Sorry, ajck, but you're wrong. The enterprise thing is very much a fact.

I see ordinary people walking down the streets with blackberries now. I see blackberry commercials on TV touting the 'multimedia/facebook/whateveryoulike' capabilities of the device. I see G1 commercials which show how easy it is to shop and navigate with the phone.

Americans *want* and *need* to be connected to services like facebook and shopping sites. Nokia is just doing a poor job of it, and trying to shove Ovi where it doesn't belong.

To the above poster, care to explain the iPhone and Android then? Neither have any real enterprise penetration and yet the iPhone outsells all of the Windows Mobile devices put together in the US.

You don't need to win over enterprise in order to be successful in the consumer space. That's a lesson that Microsoft still hasn't learnt after all these years of Windows Mobile playing second fiddle to its competitors.

To the above: I suggest spending some time in the business world in the US. iPhones are about as common as grass in a field. Everyone's boss wants one, and everyone's boss is making the poor IT guy hook it up to Exchange.

"Let me guess - S60 is not "simple enough" for Americans?"

S60 is now the ugliest and the most complicated UI of them all. The Blackberry is nasty but it does email well. Android, WebOS, OS X iPhone are all sexier and easier to use.

Nokia looks like yesterday's company.

[Jaggz]

I 'm with you on this one Ewan, as you said in the podcast, I'd be surprised if the Pre actually makes it onto the shelves.

If the Pre was being launched now, or preferably in the middle of last year, I would have given Palm a 50/50 chance of making it good in the US market. But now... it's too late... A new iPhone and a handful of powerful Android phones from various manufacturers, will make the Pre look underpowered and under supported.

In my opinion there is only one way that Nokia can break into the US market;

Introducing the new Nokia 'Marvin', and yes, he is a tad paranoid! ^_^ "The first 5 billion years were the worst..."

[Jago]

Originally Posted by Unregistered

To the above: I suggest spending some time in the business world in the US. iPhones are about as common as grass in a field. Everyone's boss wants one, and everyone's boss is making the poor IT guy hook it up to Exchange.

You said - everyone's boss wants one!

the fact that they don't tie in to corporate systems or offer much in the way of business functionality hasn't stopped it's popularity.

iphones are popular despite the lack of enterprise connectivitiy and corporate use.
Blackberries were forced on the corporate world because they worked so well with enterprises.

Nokia are somewhere in between being neither as integrated as RIM or as consumer oriented (with the simple GUI etc) as Apple!

Well I disagree about Ewans first point. Nokia never really received any hype from US ,and it hasn't stopped them so far. The point might be valid for the Anglo-Saxon world, but pretty marginal for rest of the planet. Of course there is the tiny&geeky nerd squad following tech-blogs written in english, but they really aren't importnt for the huge mainstream-consumer or corporate market.


The second point I agree with. Nokia allready lost the North American developpers. How much that will hurt them remains to be seen. Of course there are plenty of developpers outside NA, altough how much that will help Nokia remians to be seen also.