The War is Not Over

[TANKERx]

An article on the Wireless News Factor makes for interesting reading, if a little depressing if you look at it the wrong way. Entitled Shutting Microsoft Out of the Wireless World, it looks at how attempts to block Microsoft's access to wireless markets are likely to fail.

Acknowledging Symbian's advantage in that anybody who is anybody is backing the suporior Symbian OS, it says that Microsoft's position as the enterprise's preference will make it the likely choice.

This is a very narrow view and sounds like an excuse for Microsoft's failure to achieve even a modest amount of success in the consumer market. Sure, the iPaqs and the Casios are in the boardrooms, but the man on the street is using Nokia, SonyEricsson and Motorola.

With problems plaguing the Microsoft Windows Powered Smartphone 2002 (MSWPS2K2) and even Microsoft unsure about the quality of the OS, it looks like Microsoft is going to have to keep concentrating on the board rooms.

If this article is anything to go by, that's the place where Microsoft rules the roost.... only, it doesn't. It is still struggling against Palm who has the lion's share of the PDA market.

So, Microsoft can't beat Palm in the enterprise and it can't beat Symbian on the street - maybe it should give up on mobility and stick to making wordprocessors?

Not according to the analyst mentioned above because "Microsoft has the inside track because it owns the PC desktop". However, the only way Microsoft can keep that advantage is by breaking other technologies, making sure they won't work on Windows. But with more and more devices supporting open standards such as SyncML, they'd be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

If the only market that mattered was the enterprise market, this article might make more sense, but the world is bigger than that.

What do you think?

[Rafe]

I describe the article as dangerously misinformed, and looks to me largely like one of those Microsft must win becasue they just will pieces. Thre are several things in it which I would take contention with.

"Right now, it's still open for anyone,"

Rubbish! Its not open. Most of the handset manufactuers have joined up with Symbian. If we're talking about the smartphone handset market here one of three things will happen:

1. Symbian dominates with an open OS
2. Nokia becomes a software company (effectively taking over Symbian) and becoming predominant
3. (most likely) There'a split between Symbian and other minor players.

What is true is that there will remain a considerable chunk of PDA controlled territory in MS's hand, but there they are competing with Palm etc. And just as a side note Sanyo are supposed to be produced a non handset symbian device.

According to Waryas, the big ticket customer for wireless is the enterprise and businesses are moving away from the mobile phone to wireless devices that have more computing power. In that case, Microsoft will be nearly impossible to beat.

This is only true to a certain extent. I for one don't believe the wirless devices such as the XDA will ever replace the mobile phone / handset market. People will want both. Symbian's big advantage here is it has a scalable OS - it can produce the small Smartphone (7650) - and actually there scope to go much smaller there, and the more advanced smartphone (P800), as well as the communicator (still unique it is market positioning).

I can forsee a future where people might have both an XDA type device and a smartphone, or just a smartphone, but NOT just an XDA.

What this article fails to realise is that the PDA market is small fry compared to the mobile phone market. (A good example of this is that just the 9210 has around 25% market share in the PDA sector in Europe). Imagine what will happen when there's 10's of Symbian powered phones available. Symbian will simply outsell anything else.

Waryas said that company IT departments are starting to make the wireless decisions, and "they'll be most inclined to go with what they know."

Some business maybe, but the prime motiavtor will be money. Microsft win on the desktop at the moment not because they are necessairly better (lets not get into that!), but because its makes most sense for business to go with them. Everybody knows how to use Windows, training costs are low. If you look at something like the server market where this is less of an issue Linux is doing very well. I think the same will happen with the smartphone market. Symbian will win because its better, and it has manufacturer support, and because people will expect to use Symbian (there's is no inbuilt windows bias here). Business are hard nosed, they don't choose things because they're familiar - its insulting to say otherwise.

As for the last part about Symbian's danger from itself - yes its true, but its also it greatest advantage. Imagine how great thigns will be when everything is compatiable. That'll be the real killer app.

Right enough from me

[langdona]

I think one of the mistakes that people (read market analysts, the press etc) make about these smartphones is to assume that you need a PC to use them. They also assume that they are going to be used as PDA's i.e. people will want to sync their appointments and contacts with a PC based PIM. The truth is that hardly anyone I know actively uses a PC PIM. I work as a programmer and have Outlook on my desktop, however as I'm mainly office based I only use it to a limited degree and do not bother to sync it with my 9210. My 9210 is for reminding me of personal things or when I'm not in the office! My contacts tend to be more personal than those I use in the office. I also know a lot of people that only use PC's at home none of them use a PIM.

I know a lot of people who are actively looking to get a 7650 or P800 when they are coming out. They would only use the PC for backup purposes. I even know a few people who are interested in these devices but do not currently use a PC at all!

I know Microsoft spent a lot of time analysing current PDA owners when developing their Phone OS but the current PDA market is small because only a few people need a stand alone PIM. The market Nokia Sony/Ericsson and the rest are aiming at is the larger general technology market i.e. the young (well not in my case, still love gadgets though ) well off.

At the moment the perception is that a mobile device has to talk to a PC. I think the perception will change i.e. the PC will have to talk to the mobile device. If you think about it its probably easier that way as the PC has more processing power. If this happens Microsofts advantage of being number 1 on the desktop is irrelevant. It also means that very rapidly Symbian could overtake Windows as the most popular OS in the world .