More stats out recently, this time from ABI Research, showing worldwide phone market share for 2008, just about the grandest metric of all, even if it does include devices right down to bargain basement level. Nokia tops the list again, with a world share of 38.6%, while Samsung reached 16.2%. Motorola and LG are hovering at around 8%, with newbies RIM and Apple getting to 1.9% and 1.1% respectively. I wonder where we'll be at the end of 2009? Predictions on a postcard....
Nokia will continue to lead with at least 36% market share for 2009. RIM and Apple should increase their share to 2.5% and 2% respectively while Android phones should take less than 1% of the market share in 2009.
The total market share of all smartphones put together is only something like 10-15%, so that's probably the upper limit for companies that only make high end devices. You need to make cheap models if you want lots of market share, though of course market share and profit are two different things.
If Nokia and others start releasing ultra-cheap smartphones the total smartphone market share could expand quite a lot. For example if smartphones go below the 100 euro (before subsidy and taxes) barrier anything is possible. The current economic turmoil may force this to happen much more quickly.